🔗 Share this article

With nine goals in his initial seven league matches, City forward Erling Haaland has kicked off the season with incredible momentum.

Even though this doesn't represent his strongest opening to a campaign - he found the net 11 times in his initial seven matches in the 2022-23 season and double digits last year - it nevertheless places him three goals ahead in the early running for this season's Premier League Golden Boot.

The reality that none of his nine goals have been penalties makes it even more impressive.

Why Haaland Stands Out

Of course, injury could definitively intervene in the destination of the Golden Boot, but there are two primary explanations why Haaland is so heavily favored for the award so quickly into the term.

Firstly, the total of conversions he has already scored - and, of similar importance, the number and quality of scoring opportunities he's creating.

Secondly, the slow start his regular challengers for the prize have made.

xG Statistical Breakdown

A footballer's xG statistic (xG) represents how many goals a top-flight footballer has typically netted from the quantity and caliber of scoring situations he's encountered.

This isn't a figure arbitrarily chosen by statistical experts, but by English top-flight records.

Upon reviewing at players' xG in the Premier League so far this campaign from normal play, the Norway forward is receiving significantly more good opportunities to score than every other footballer.

Actually, even if Haaland were no better at converting opportunities than any other player in the division, he would nonetheless have netted more than twice as many goals as all other players.

Chance Creation Breakdown

That is demonstrated by examining the total and standard of opportunities that players have had in the Premier League so far.

Haaland has attempted 29 efforts so far this season, twelve additional compared to all other attackers.

That is actually not particularly unusual for him - he had actually taken more non-spot-kick efforts at this stage in the most recent two terms (30 in the 2023-24 season and 34 in the 2024-25 campaign).

What is, however remarkable even by his standards is the caliber of opportunities he has had this season. His shots have had an expected goals rating of 0.27 on average.

What that figure means is that attackers have typically netted the efforts he's registered at a 27% success ratio.

Of players to take at ten or more efforts, only Blues playmaker Enzo Fernandez has had more straightforward opportunities to score on average - because of a couple of tap-ins against West Ham and Brighton.

Haaland's xG of 0.27 is considerably superior than the 0.17 expected goals per effort he had at the opening of last term.

In short, the chances he has had in this campaign have been significantly more straightforward to find the net from in a restructured Manchester City side than those at the beginning of last season.

Historical Comparison

Beginning a campaign so strongly is, as mentioned above, not uncommon for Haaland. After seven games last term he had registered ten strikes - a quartet more than any other player and half-dozen more than Mohamed Salah.

Yet it was the Anfield star who claimed the top scorer award with 29 goals, seven more than the Manchester City striker.

During the current term, while Haaland has opened with incredible momentum, Salah has netted fifty percent fewer goals and had half the scoring situations (xG) than at this point in the previous campaign.

Actually this has been the quietest start to a Premier League season the Egypt forward has made.

Rivals' Slow Start

It is not just Salah who has started slowly either. When examining at the highest eleven attackers in the Premier League last campaign, Haaland has registered an equal amount goals as the remaining ten footballers put together so far.

Whether due to physical problems - multiple prominent forwards - extended transfer dramas in a specific forward's circumstances or merely because their clubs have faced difficulties (multiple established scorers), Haaland's likely rivals in the battle for the scoring title have underperformed so far.

European Top Scorer Competition

Although the Norwegian appears the obvious frontrunner for the English top scorer award, what about the Continental scoring award that is awarded to the attacker netting the highest number in Europe's premier competitions?

That race is significantly tighter at this early stage because Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have also started in superb fashion, with eleven and nine strikes respectively.

The reality Haaland has registered multiple conversions and has the top chance quality metric of the three players despite not attempting any spot-kicks positions him as the favourite.

Yet given that the English and French stars are two of the best converters in European football in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the battle continues intensely.